According to a study by Euromonitor International, in 2030, Vietnam's population is forecast to reach 106 million people, an increase of 11.2% compared to 2017. Of these, 20.6% of the population is aged 0-14 years old, 67% is aged 15-64 years old, and 12.4% is over 65 years old.
Vietnam's population shows signs of aging and the average age will increase from 31.2 years (2017) to 37 years (2030). The number of people between the ages of 15 and 64 is predicted to fall to 67% by 2030 while in 2017 has reached 69.8%. However, the elderly population aged 65 and over will grow by 6.4 million people between 2017 and 2030. A more positive result of the study is that life expectancy will increase from 76.5 years (2017) to 79 years (2030) thanks to movements promoting healthier lifestyles.
The government's “two-child” policy is enforced by enacting contraceptives, fining couples who have more than two children, and preventing them from moving to urban centers. Therefore, the fertility rate in Vietnam decreased to 1.9 in 2030 while the fertility rate in 2017 was 2.0 and in 1980 was 5.0. The average childbearing age for women is around 27 years old and is slowly aging by 2030.
The marriage rate is expected to decrease from 4.9 (2017) to 3.9 (2030) and the married population will increase from 53.3% (2017) to 54.1% (2030). The marriage ages of men and women also increased slightly from 2017 to 2030. This may be the cause of factors that reduce birth rates and increase the average age of female births.
The projected figures for Vietnam's demographic factors in 2030 are of increasing significance because of the relatively high (albeit declining) birth rate and growing life expectancy. This forecasting study will be a reliable source of information for state management organizations as well as human resource issues of Vietnamese enterprises.
Cre: VIETNAM IN 2030: THE FUTURE demographic - Euromonitor International
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